Variational risk score

Last updated: 14 Nov 2026 · RFQ (peer-to-peer) on Arbitrum · Official site: variational.io · Research-based: we have not traded on Variational yet.

Weighted over the 7 scored factors: 81/100. Method: How Perpd scores perp DEXs.

Exit risk: 7/10

Funds sit in isolated per-user settlement pools on Arbitrum One, withdrawable up to the unused balance above maintenance margin, and no pauses were found. Not higher: no forced exit is documented if the operator stops, and upgradeability, admin keys and pause rights aren't disclosed.

• 'All settlement pools are completely isolated from each other'; 'uninvolved parties do not have access to funds in settlement pools they are not a part of'. 'A user may withdraw the unused balance from the pool, up to the maintenance margin requirement.' On Omni, each user has a bilateral pool with the OLP. (source, accessed 2026-11-14)
• 'Each user's funds are held on-chain in this settlement pool.' 'OLP never transfers traders' funds to external venues such as CEXs or DEXs.' (source, accessed 2026-11-14)
• Arbitrum contracts (Arbiscan links): Settlement Pool Factory 0x0F820B9afC270d658a9fD7D16B1Bdc45b70f074C, Core OLP Vault 0x74bbbb0e7f0bad6938509dd4b556a39a4db1f2cd, Oracle 0x84BE56470d45b7f6629A66A219a38681F6BA6172, Protocol Treasury 0x5e91b40467fb8902c46a7b6cb90482363188d645. The page says nothing about upgradeability, proxies, admin/owner keys, multisig, timelocks or pause functions. (source, accessed 2026-11-14)
• ToS: 'self-custodial digital wallet' (s.2(C)). The Company 'does not have control over such smart-contracts or the blockchain' (s.3(D)) and 'will not block or prevent you from accessing your Digital Wallet' unless legally required (s.3(G)). It may 'suspend, or discontinue any aspect of the Platform' (s.2(F)). (source, accessed 2026-11-14)
• After the 29 Oct 2026 Binance incident, Variational said user funds 'are safe in on-chain contracts and can be withdrawn anytime'. No hacks, thefts or withdrawal pauses were found. (source, 2026-11-02)
• Peer-to-peer protocol on Arbitrum One. Each trade sits in an isolated on-chain escrow ('settlement pool'). USDC collateral, withdrawable to an Arbitrum wallet any time, with no fiat ramps. (source, 2026-09-28)
• Escape hatch: no separate one is needed since funds sit on Arbitrum directly; protocol-specific forced exit not found. Admin/upgrade keys: not found. Withdrawal pauses: not found. L2BEAT (now ETHBEAT): no Variational entry found. (source, 2026-09-28)

Security record: 9/10

Audits by Zellic (Dec 2024) and Spearbit (Mar 2025) are public in its docs, no exploits were found, and Omni has run with real funds since Jan 2025 (private mainnet; public mainnet opened 11 Nov 2026). The bug bounty tops out at $100K (-1).

• 'The Variational Protocol has undergone audits with both Zellic and Spearbit.' Zellic was completed Dec 2024 and Spearbit Mar 2025. Both reports are embedded as downloadable files on the docs site. Scope not stated. (source, accessed 2026-11-14)
• Immunefi program: maximum bounty $100,000. Smart contract Critical pays $10K-$100K (10% of affected funds), High $3.5K-$25K. Websites/apps Critical $10K-$50K. Live since 16 Mar 2026, last updated 15 Oct 2026. KYC is required to receive payouts. (source, 2026-10-15)
• Roadmap: Omni testnet Q2 2024, Omni private mainnet Q1 2025, and public mainnet launch, all marked completed. (source, accessed 2026-11-14)
• Private testing began in Jan 2025, limited to whitelisted addresses. The public mainnet opened with no invitation code required. (source, 2026-11-11)
• Exploits/incidents: none found. A third-party review of Variational's on-chain setup found no hacks, thefts or withdrawal pauses. (source, 2026-11-02)
• Smart contracts reviewed by Zellic and Spearbit. Full public audit reports were not published as of writing. (source, 2026-09-28)
• An Immunefi bug-bounty page exists. Max payout: not found (page not read). (source, not found)
• Exploits/incidents: none reported. (source, 2026-09-28)

Liquidation & ADL: 6/10

There's no insurance fund: the team-seeded liquidity provider (OLP) is the backstop, its size isn't disclosed, and PnL owed after an OLP insolvency would become unpaid bad debt (-2). Its liquidation and counterparty-liquidation logic isn't fully documented in the pages we read (-2).

• 'Initially, the Variational team has provided seed capital for OLP.' A community vault is planned. No insurance fund is mentioned, and the docs say 'there is a risk that OLP loses money'. If the OLP becomes insolvent, post-insolvency PnL 'would be considered "bad debt," and would not be able to be paid out to the user.' (source, accessed 2026-11-14)
• ADL, socialized-loss or manipulation incidents in the last 12 months: none found. (source, 2026-11-02)
• OLP is the only counterparty on every Omni trade. It prices from CEX/DEX/TradFi feeds and hedges externally, and has last-look rights to reject quotes in extreme volatility. (source, 2026-09-28)
• OLP size/TVL not disclosed. Capital is team-seeded; community deposits are planned later. (source, 2026-09-28)
• ADL/socialized-loss/manipulation incidents in 12 months: not found. (source, 2026-09-28)

Volume quality: 10/10

Volume runs at about 1x open interest or lower, and no wash-trading allegations were found.

• Official statement: open contracts 'have exceeded 1.5 billion dollars'; cumulative volume is above $450B. DefiLlama showed OI of $755.43M on 2026-11-09. (source, 2026-11-11)
• 24h perp volume $754m; 30d $16.069b; OI $755.43m (all on Arbitrum). Ratio 24h/OI is about 1.0 (30d/OI about 21). TVL not listed. (source, accessed 2026-11-09)
• Points program awards about 150K points/week and excludes wash trading. Allegations: not found. (source, 2026-09-28)

Access & legal: 10/10

A clear, dated restricted list (US, Canada and Taiwan, 20 Apr 2026), a named contracting entity (MCMC Research Corporation, S.A., with arbitration in Panama), and no regulator action found.

• Operator/contracting party: MCMC Research Corporation, S.A. Disputes go to individual binding arbitration in Panama at the Arbitration and Settlement Centre of Panama (CECAP), in English. The Company may 'refuse customers from any other country' (s.4(E)). KYC: there is no KYC step to trade, but the Company reserves AML-driven requests and the right to suspend or terminate access. (source, accessed 2026-11-14)
• Restricted Persons (last updated 20 Apr 2026): United States plus 'U.S. persons' and US territories (Puerto Rico, Guam, USVI, Northern Mariana Is., US Minor Outlying Is., Micronesia, Marshall Is., Palau); Canada plus 'Canadian persons'; Taiwan; Cuba; Iran; North Korea; Sudan; Syria; Crimea/Donetsk/Luhansk/Sevastopol. UK: not restricted. India: not restricted. EU: not restricted (named only as a sanctions authority). (source, 2026-04-20)
• Regulator actions: none found. (source, 2026-11-11)
• Restricted persons: US and Canada residents. UK: not mentioned. India: not mentioned. EU: not mentioned. (source, 2026-09-28)
• Entity: described as Cayman Islands-based. Exact legal entity name: not found. (source, 2026-09-28)
• KYC: not found. Regulator actions: not found. (source, 2026-09-28)

Token, unlocks & team: 8/10

No token as of 14 Nov 2026 (docs say Q4 2026, with no date). Scored on team transparency and points terms, unchanged at 8, now from primary docs. At TGE the 50% team-plus-investor share would cost -2, and the team/investor split is still undisclosed.

• $VAR 'will be launched in Q4 2026'. Genesis airdrop 32% (proportional to points, fully unlocked at TGE). Ecosystem Reserve 18% (Variational Foundation, at its discretion). Team & Investors 50%: locked 12 months after TGE, then unlocking 'over a minimum of three years'. The split 'will be shared prior to TGE'. (source, accessed 2026-11-14)
• An airdrop calendar lists the VAR TGE as Q4 2026 per the docs, with Omni points still live. A linked ChainCatcher piece reports a founder saying the TGE is still planned for this year. (source, 2026-11-13)
• No token yet: VAR TGE was 'confirmed for Q4 2026', delayed from Q3. Whether it has happened as of 9 Nov 2026: not found. (source, 2026-09-28)
• Announced allocation: 32% Genesis airdrop (fully unlocked at TGE), 18% ecosystem reserve (Variational Foundation), 50% team+investors (12-month lock, then at least 3 years linear). Unclaimed Genesis tokens will be burned. (source, 2026-09-28)
• Team: co-founders Lucas Schuermann (CEO) and Edward Yu. Backers: $10.3M seed (Oct 2024, Bain Capital Crypto, Peak XV) and $50M Series A (May 2026, Dragonfly). (source, 2026-09-28)
• Points: launched 17 Dec 2025 with 3M retro points, about 150K/week, converting to the Genesis airdrop. (source, 2026-09-28)

Cost: 8/10

Zero trading fees, confirmed as long-term. The cost sits inside the quoted spread, which we haven't measured yet.

• Variational kept fees at zero during testing and describes this as a 'long-term arrangement' at the public mainnet opening. (source, 2026-11-11)
• Maker and taker fees are zero. Cost is embedded in the spread, which is tighter for higher loyalty tiers. Funding is paid between OLP and traders on open perps. (source, 2026-09-28)

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